Research, theses, exposures. Written from an active book.

BTC is washed out, 53% off its high. The work now is the entry.

Bitcoin is 53% below the October high. The leverage that defined the top is gone: funding has been negative since late February, open interest has reset to a six-month low, and the carry basis has collapsed. The marginal seller is concentrated in the spot-ETF channel and the bitcoin-treasury complex, and most of that selling already sits in the tape. I read the post-halving distribution as largely complete.

At $59,600, structural support near $50,000 sits 16% below and the prior high 112% above, a reward-to-risk near 7 to 1. Gold and short-duration cash fund a laddered base. I am not calling a single bottom or an imminent new high. I am accumulating while the cost of patience is low, with the largest tranche held for the $50,000 zone.

See: R-10 · Sold Out: BTC Positioning & Cycle Structure

Perpetual futures infrastructure is the most undervalued primitive in crypto capital markets, and Hyperliquid is the asset that expresses it.

HyperCore plus HyperEVM compresses the distance between an idea for a derivative and a live on-chain market from months to hours. HIP-3 permissionless listing is the leg that matters; broader expansion is, in my read, likely. Hyperliquid is materially more than a crypto venue. The same rails support equity-style and other underlyings. The market hasn't priced that optionality.

The regulatory window has cracked open: CFTC RFI, SEC posture shifting, Coinbase self-certification of perps. The gap with TradFi exchanges closes asymmetrically in favor of native venues that already have the liquidity.

See: R-07 · Hyperliquid (HYPE): Infrastructure, Tokenomics, Valuation

Equities are on stilts. I'm watching the triggers, not paying to be early.

The bid is being held up by a narrow leg: AI capex and the energy demand it drags behind it. Dealer positioning, single-stock gamma in the names doing the work, and breadth divergence underneath the index print are consistent with a late-cycle squeeze, not a healthy expansion.

A blow-off top is the path of least resistance. The correction will be sharp and violent when the macro setup turns. Iran, China, oil rolling over, a credit event, or AI capex slowing meaningfully are all live triggers. The posture I want is dry powder and asymmetric hedges, not max long.

See: R-09 · Equities on Stilts: Vol Regime & Dealer Positioning

Real rates compression resumes by mid-2027; precious metals lead, BTC follows with a lag.

Fiscal dominance constrains the policy response to the next growth scare. Gold's 2024–25 leg discounted that path; the next leg comes when real yields confirm. BTC's correlation to gold runs through liquidity, not safety. The lag compresses as crypto market structure matures.